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Study Pushes Back on Claims of Sharp SEO Traffic Declines Due to AI

Rob Duncan

Rob Duncan

— 1 min read
search traffic decline

A new analysis from Graphite, conducted in partnership with Similarweb, challenges widespread claims that organic search traffic has dropped dramatically due to AI and large language models.

Why it matters:
Concerns about declining SEO traffic have influenced marketing strategy, budget allocation, and publisher sentiment. This study suggests the impact may be more modest than commonly reported.

The findings:

  • Organic search traffic across the top 40,000 U.S. websites declined by 2.5% year over year, not the 25%–50% drop often cited.
  • Search engine traffic has remained largely stable since 2023, with slight growth in 2025.
  • Google visits increased 1.4% in Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024, according to Similarweb data.
  • Organic clicks remain significantly larger than ad clicks, by roughly 10 to 1.

AI and click-through rates:

  • AI Overviews reduce organic click-through rates by about 35% when present.
  • AI Overviews appear in roughly 30% of searches.
  • In most cases, Featured Snippets previously occupied similar positions and also reduced CTR.

Who gained and who lost:

  • The largest 10 websites saw traffic growth of 1.6%.
  • Traffic declines were concentrated among mid-sized sites (ranked roughly 100–10,000).
  • News, health, cooking, and entertainment experienced the largest category-level declines.
  • Retail, apparel, and marketplace sites saw increases.

Methodology:

  • Analysis used Similarweb visit data from February–December 2024 compared with January–November 2025.
  • Dataset included the top 40,000 U.S. websites by traffic.

The big picture:
The study concludes that while AI features and platform changes are affecting how users interact with search results, claims of a dramatic collapse in SEO traffic are not supported by large-scale traffic data.

What to watch:
Whether future AI-driven search changes increase coverage beyond current levels—and how mid-sized publishers adapt as competition and SERP layouts evolve.

Source: https://graphite.io/five-percent/debunking-the-myth-that-seo-traffic-has-dramatically-declined

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